What This Illustration Shows
Gold earns nothing while you hold it. Every dollar of return has to come from the price rising, and part of that rise is used up before you see any of it: the premium when you buy, the buy-back discount when you sell and the yearly cost of keeping the metal safe.
The two break-even figures show how hard the price has to work. The first is the yearly rise needed just to get your money back. The second is the rise needed to beat simply leaving the money at the interest rate you entered.
No one can tell you what the gold price will do. Use the "Other Price Paths" table to see a range, including falls, and read our guide to gold in a retirement portfolio for the risks.